寿命数据建模在核电备件定额中的应用研究

Research on Lifetime Data Modeling Application in Nuclear Power Spare Parts Quota

摘要:

针对核电备件储备过程中非计划性需求难以量化的问题，开展了基于寿命分布模型与更新函数的安全库存与再订购点决策方法研究。基于备件寿命数据，构建寿命分布模型，并利用更新过程理论建立非计划性需求的期望计算方法；在此基础上，分析了泊松分布与正态分布对需求次数的近似适用条件，并提出采用蒙特卡洛仿真方法对复杂寿命分布条件下的需求次数进行建模，通过经验分位数计算安全库存与再订购点。案例分析表明，该方法能够将寿命数据中的失效信息转化为库存控制参数，实现备件储备定额与实际失效特性的匹配，在样本数量有限及寿命分布复杂条件下仍具有良好的适用性。研究结果为核电备件库存参数的定量确定提供了可靠的理论与方法支撑。

Abstract:

To address the difficulty in quantifying stochastic demand for nuclear power spare parts, a decision-making method for safety stock and reorder point based on life distribution models and renewal theory is investigated. Based on spare part lifetime data, life distribution models are constructed, and the expected demand is derived using renewal process theory. On this basis, the applicability of Poisson and normal approximations for demand distribution is analyzed, and a Monte Carlo simulation approach is further proposed to model demand under complex lifetime distributions. Safety stock and reorder points are determined using empirical quantiles obtained from simulation results. Case analysis shows that the proposed method effectively transforms failure information in lifetime data into inventory control parameters, achieving consistency between spare parts inventory levels and actual failure characteristics. The method remains applicable under conditions of limited sample size and complex lifetime distributions, providing a reliable theoretical and methodological basis for inventory decision-making of nuclear power spare parts.