基于多态共因失效的助航灯光供电系统可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of Navigation Light Power Supply System Based on Multi-state and Common Cause Failure

摘要:

随着我国机场规模和航班运行时长的快速提升,对助航灯光供电系统的可靠性要求越来越高,文中针对助航灯光供电系统提出了一种基于多态共因失效的可靠性分析模型；首先根据系统中多重串联元件间故障传递关系建立元件的多态模型,其次针对传统共因失效β因子的单一赋值问题,引入结构修正因子C,建立助航灯光冗余供电系统的改进β因子共因失效分析模型；并以国内典型机场灯光供电系统为例,通过建立共因失效前后的传统、多态贝叶斯模型和计算可靠度,证明多态共因失效贝叶斯模型可正确描述灯光供电系统,且模型复杂度更低,更接近系统实际情况；最后利用贝叶斯的反向推理找到助航灯光供电系统薄弱环节。

Abstract:

With the rapid increase in the scale of airports and flight operation duration in my country, the reliability of navigation light power supply system is getting higher and higher. In this paper, a reliability analysis model based on multi-state common cause failure is proposed for the navigation light power supply system. Firstly, the multi-state model of the components is established according to the fault transfer relationship between multiple series components in the system. Secondly, for the single assignment problem of the traditional common cause failure β-factor, a structural modification C-factor is introduced. Establishment of an improved β-factor common-cause failure analysis model for the redundant navigation light power supply system. Take the domestic typical airport lighting power supply system as an example. By establishing traditional, multi-state Bayesian models and calculating reliability before and after common cause failure. It is proved that the multi-state common cause failure Bayesian model can correctly describe the navigation light power supply system. The model complexity is lower and closer to the actual situation of the system. Finally, use Bayesian reverse reasoning to find the weak link of the navigation light power supply system.