基于误差分析的火箭上浮水雷打击概率试验评定

Test Evaluation of Rocket Floating Mine’s Strike Probability Based on Error Analysis Method

摘要:

针对火箭上浮攻击水雷打击概率试验实施困难、安全风险和耗费高、无科学合理评定模型的现状，在分析火箭上浮水雷打击毁伤目标工作原理和动作过程的基础上，结合水下非接触爆炸毁伤原理，综合利用误差分析、数理统计和概率论方法，建立了一套科学合理可行的水雷打击概率计算模型；然后通过解决试验评定工程化实施过程中的测量误差修正和样本量分配问题，形成了一套可实际工程化应用的水雷打击概率试验评定方案；三型目标舰船的典型计算案例表明，该方案解决了可在封锁区域内任意点攻击的火箭上浮水雷打击概率考核问题，在保证试验评定质量的同时可大幅提高试验实施质效，不仅可推广应用至其他类型水雷的打击概率试验评定中，还可在一定程度上指导火箭上浮水雷的研制和设计。

Abstract:

Currently the test evaluation of rocket floating mine’s strike probability is difficult, highly cost and lack of scientific and reasonable evaluation model. Aiming at solve this Currently the test evaluation of rocket floating mine’s strike probability is difficult, highly safety risk and cost, lack of scientific and reasonable evaluation model. Aiming at solve this problem, this paper proposed a sci-entific and feasible strike probability calculation method witch is established by using error analysis and mathematical statistics method though analysis the working and attacking process of rocket floating mine and the principle of Underwater Non-Contact Explosion damage. Then by solving the problems of measurement error correction and sample size allocation in the process of engineering implementation of test evaluation, a reasonable test and evaluation scheme of strike probability that can be applied in practical engineering in the field of mine test evaluation is generated. The scheme solves the problem of strike probability assessment of rocket floating mine witch can attack at any point in the blocked area. This scheme can greatly improve the quality and efficiency of test implementation while ensuring the quality of test evaluation. It can not only be applied to the test evaluation of strike probability of other types of mines, but also guide the development and design of rocket floating mines to a certain extent.