广西覆冰预报与评估系统设计及应用

The Design and Application of Guangxi Ice Accretion Forecasting and Assessment System

摘要:

摘要：为减轻覆冰问题造成的电网线路灾害，同时为了给电力部门开展防冰、融冰工作提供科学的参考依据，本文研发了一个覆冰预报与评估系统。该系统首先通过对架空线路覆冰易发区域气象观测、覆冰观测、覆冰灾情及地理信息等多源资料的综合分析，确定了覆冰气象阈值，用逐步回归分析方法建立了覆冰标准厚度气象模型，并结合地形进行订正。在此基础上，利用多元决策加权集成法，对欧洲、日本的细网格气象数值预报产品进行集成处理，建立覆冰厚度短期预报模型。其次，本系统采用欧氏距离计算方法，建立覆冰多指标综合指数评估模型。该系统运行稳定、智慧化与自动化程度高，提供的覆冰预报准确率高，评估效果与灾情实况较为一致，服务效果良好，具有较好的推广应用前景。

Abstract:

In order to reduce the disaster of power network caused by the ice coating problem, and to provide a scientific reference for the electric power department to carry out ice prevention and melting ice, this paper developed an ice accretion forecasting and evaluation system. The system firstly through the comprehensive analysis of meteorological observations, ice accretion observations, ice accretion disasters and geographic information in the ice Accretion-prone area of overhead lines, the ice accretion weather threshold was determined. The stepwise regression analysis method was used to establish the ice thickness standard meteorological model, and the forecast results of the model were revised in combination with the topography. On this basis, the multi-decision weighted integration method is used to integrate the fine grid meteorological numerical forecast products of ECMWF and Japan to establish a short-term forecast model of ice thickness. Secondly, the system uses the Euclidean distance calculation method to establish a multi-index comprehensive index evaluation model for ice coating. The system is stable, intelligent and highly automated. The accuracy of the ice-covered forecast is high. The evaluation effect is consistent with the actual situation of the disaster, and the service effect is good. It has a good prospect of popularization and application.