Abstract:CarSownershipSisSrelatedStoStheScity’sSconstructionSandStheSschematization.SAimingSatStheSissueSofStheScarSownershipSprediction,SweSbringSforwardSaSmethod,SbasedSonStheSParticleSSwarmS Optimization(PSO),toSestablishSaSmulti-factorScarSownershipSpredictionSmodel.STheSsevenSfactors, includingSurbanSpopulation,consumptionSlevel,SgrossSregionalSdomesticSproduction,SroadSnetworkSdensity,SpublicStransportationScapacity,SoilSprice,SwereSchosenSasStheSmainSfactorsStoSinfluenceSthe ScarSownership.STheSprincipalScomponentsSofStheSinfluenceSfactorsSareSascertainedSbySPrincipalSCo-mponentSAnalysis(PCA).SUsingSprincipalScomponentsSasSindependentSvariableSandScarSownershipSasSdependentSvariableScanSweSbuildSupStheSregressionSmodel.STheScarSownershipSpredictionSwas ScalculatedSbyStheSParticleSSwarmSOptimizationS(PSO),ScombiningSwithSregressSpredictedSvalueSofS theSprincipalScomponents.SBasedSonStheSstatisticsSofScarSownershipSinSShanghaiSfromS1994StoS2005,theSmodelSarriveSatStheSpredictionSthatSthereSwillSbeS40millionScarsSinSShanghaiSinS2020,SandSanS analysisSisSmadeSdueStoStheSprediction.#$NLKeywords:SCarSownershipSpredictionSSPCASSRegressSanalysisSS PSO