基于测试参数的某型空空导弹健康评估模型

Health Evaluation Model of Air-to-air Missile Based on Test Parameters

摘要:

为了评估空空导弹健康状态,借助测试原理和导弹结构,建立贝叶斯网络拓扑结构模型,根据根节点输入和条件概率值进行推理,利用GeNIe2.0对试验参数进行仿真,确定导弹处于各个健康等级的可能性,仿真结果符合导弹的实际健康状态；敏感性分析确定了导弹部件的重要性,针对寿命周期各个环节提出了建议；借助模型,可以根据测试单元优劣健康评估情况制定有效的维修决策,这为基层部队进行导弹可靠性分析提供了方法和途径。

Abstract:

To evaluate the health status of air-to-air missile, topological structure model of Bayesian network is established based on testing theory and missile structure. According to root inputs and condition probability table, GeNIe2.0 begins to reason according to indexes, and gets the probabilities in different health statuses. The simulation result agrees to the real health status of missile. Sensitivity analysis determines the importance of missile parts, and it helps to put forward suggestions during the life circle. The health evaluation model can help to make decisions on maintenance according to the simulation result, and make it possible for basic units to take on reliability analysis.